With his lifelong dream of tax reform finally within sight, Speaker of the House Paul Ryan is reportedly preparing himself for retirement. Three dozen sources close to Ryan—an assemblage of his congressional colleagues, Capitol Hill aides, conservatives, and Republican lobbyists—told Politico that they expect the Wisconsin lawmaker to leave Congress next year.
There is some irony in the possibility of Ryan bowing out, just a year after making his peace with Donald Trump—a compromise one of his allies characterized to Politico as “Paul’s deal with the devil”—to steward a conservative agenda through a Republican-controlled Congress. Ryan, an Ayn Rand devotee who used to high five about entitlement reform over kegs, is on the verge of seeing the most regressive tax cut in decades enacted and has a shot at slashing Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid next year, his second white whale, before Democrats potentially retake one or both houses in November. But much like his predecessor, John Boehner, who was forced from his speakership in 2015 by the conservative fringe of the Republican Party, Ryan is facing a brewing insurrection on his right flank. He’s also fighting an enduring battle to unite the factitious G.O.P. and, in recent weeks, has been tasked with exorcising colleagues from his caucus who have been accused of sexual impropriety amid a seismic cultural shift.
Stepping down, of course, would be the perfect way to cash in on his donor-class fellating tax bill while leaving the whole Trump circus behind (“Zip-a-Dee-Doo-Dah,” as Boehner might say). “You’ve got to remember, I’m the only guy in the modern era who didn’t want this job,” he told Politico Magazine this fall. And Ryan’s headaches aren’t getting any better. With several key pieces of legislation teed up for the spring that are sure to divide the caucus, including funding the government, raising the debt ceiling, and ensuring protections for so-called “Dreamers,” the arch-conservative House Freedom Caucus is spoiling for a fight. If Ryan makes concessions to Democrats to secure votes, he could provoke a coup similar to the one that ousted Boehner.
Even Ryan allies are preparing for his exit. His most likely successors, Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy and Majority Whip Steve Scalise, have reportedly held meetings with their respective loyalists to plot potential strategies in the event that Ryan deserts or falls victim to a mutiny. But the speakership is widely expected to be a jump ball if Ryan leaves; as Representative Mark Meadows noted to Politico, “There are no more golden boys left.”
Indeed, Ryan’s departure would be a fitting capstone to the Tea Party revolution that first brought him to national prominence, and which has now been eclipsed in the Trump era. In the fall of 2010, when fiscal conservatism was ascendant, Ryan, McCarthy, and Eric Cantor cemented their rising profiles with the publication of a policy manifesto, “Young Guns: A New Generation of Conservative Leaders.” Four years later, Cantor, the House majority leader, was unexpectedly ousted in the Virginia G.O.P. primary by a little known economics professor, Dave Brat, in a shocking election upset that would presage Trump’s own. With Ryan contemplating joining Cantor in the more lucrative private sector, only one of the original “young guns” would be left in Washington.
Within hours of the Politico report, Trump, whose campaign feud with Ryan has faded since the election, reportedly called the speaker to ask about his plans. Ryan pushed back, telling the president, “I’m not going anywhere,” according to a congressional aide. During Thursday’s press briefing, Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders repeated the claim. “The president made sure that the Speaker knew in no uncertain terms that if that news was true, he was very unhappy with it,” she told reporters, adding, “The Speaker assured the president that those were not accurate reports and that they look forward to working together for a long time to come.” Indeed, another 13 months in office will likely feel like a lifetime.
