As was made evident during his campaign, transition period, and first month in the White House, Donald Trump is more than happy to create his own reality to comport with his worldview and objectives. Some might call this lying, though senior White House linguist Kellyanne Conway prefers the term “alternative facts.” Want to convince voters that protectionist, anti-immigration policies are the only way to keep the country safe? Just invent a massacre or allude to acts of terror that have never actually occurred. Want to win the inaugurations ratings race going on in your own head? Just claim you had the biggest turn out ever, period, no further questions. Want to convince voters that America is a hellscape wherein nearly half the population is unemployed but if you are elected, you’ll fix all that in one fell swoop? Just say the unemployment rate is “phony” and the real number is “probably 28, 29, as high as 35 [percent]. In fact, I even heard recently 42 percent.”
Obviously, the ease with which Trump and company proffer these alternative facts is not comforting for people who would prefer America not turn into a Stalin-esque dystopia. Nor is it reassuring that the administration has divined a way to bolster its argument for renegotiating trade deals and imposing tariffs by recalculating official economic data to fit Team Trump’s way of thinking. Per the Wall Street Journal:
The Trump administration is considering changing the way it calculates U.S. trade deficits, a shift that would make the country’s trade gap appear larger than it had in past years, according to people involved in the discussions.
The leading idea under consideration would exclude from U.S. exports any goods first imported into the country, such as cars, and then transferred to a third country like Canada or Mexico unchanged, these people told The Wall Street Journal.
Economists say that approach would inflate trade deficit numbers because it would typically count goods as imports when they come into the country but not count the same goods when they go back out, known as re-exports.
A larger trade deficit would give the Trump administration ammunition in arguing that trade deals need to be renegotiated, and might help boost political support for imposing tariffs.
Career government employees objected last week when they were asked to prepare data using the new methodology, according to the people familiar with the discussions.
Even before the new methodology was proposed, University of Oregon professor Mark Thoma was worried about how Team Trump would apply its alternative facts policy to data and the economy. Per Bloomberg:
“The worst thing he could do -- and I see this as a real danger -- would be to politicize the agencies that produce government economic data, to put people in place that will skew the numbers in his favor,” Thoma said in a Jan. 24 commentary for CBS MoneyWatch. “If that happens, the data will be useless, and we’ll essentially be flying blind when it comes to the true state of the economy.”
And, as Bloomberg notes, its not just government employees and lefties who are afraid.
In a sign that concern is not limited to one side of the political spectrum, the conservative-leaning American Enterprise Institute and liberal-leaning Brookings Institution are co-sponsoring a conference in Washington March 2 on the “Vital role of Government Statistics: Strengthening Research, Governance, and Innovation.”
“The modern economy is more reliant on data than ever before,” the think-tanks said in an e-mail announcing the conference, with speakers that include economist Martin Feldstein, a former CEA chairman. “Without reliable information about the economic and social environment, making sensible choices that produce positive outcomes in commerce, research, and governance is impossible.”
