Levin Report

More than 1,000 Economists Agree: This Trump Policy Will Be a Disaster

One thousand four hundred and seventy experts probably can’t all be wrong.
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President Donald Trump has big, terrific plans to make America great again, just as soon as he finishes watching multiple hours of Fox News ever day and finding out the secret ingredient in Mar-a-Lago’s “beautiful” chocolate cake. One way he plans to restore greatness to America, a country founded by immigrants, is to kick out as many undocumented people as is logistically possible.

The decision by the Trump administration in February to set the stage for a massive immigration crackdown—expanding the powers of federal agents, calling for local law enforcement to get involved in the effort, and widening the definition of “removable alien”—has already taken an incredible human toll. Sara Beltran Hernandez, a mother of two who was reportedly the victim of domestic abuse in El Salvador, was removed from a Texas hospital bed—where Beltran Hernandez says she was being treated for a brain tumor—and taken to the Prairieland Detention Center (she was later released and is being allowed to live with family in New York while her asylum claim is processed). Last week, Roberto Beristain, a restaurant owner living in Indiana for 20 years who received permission from the Obama administration in 2012 to stay in the country as long as he periodically checked in with immigration officials, was deported to Mexico. The pages of countless newspapers across the country are filled with similar stories.

But the president’s anti-immigration policies also present a major risk to several U.S. economic sectors that rely on immigrant labor, a fact that Trump—as a businessman who routinely hires seasonal immigrant laborers at his hotels and golf courses and winery, and employed undocumented workers to build Trump Tower—ought to understand better than anybody. Nevertheless, 1,470 economists have decided to give the president a refresher on the importance of immigration in the form of a very public letter. Per CNN Money:

In a letter to President Trump and top Congressional leaders Wednesday, nearly 1,500 economists extolled the economic benefits immigrants bring to the U.S. and urged Congress to "modernize" the country's immigration system.

“[I]mmigration is one of America's significant competitive advantages in the global economy,” the letter said. “With the proper and necessary safeguards in place, immigration represents an opportunity rather than a threat to our economy and to American workers.”

Among the economic benefits that immigration brings are entrepreneurs who start businesses, young workers who replace retiring Baby Boomers and people with diverse skill sets to keep American companies competitive and innovative in high-growth fields like STEM, the letter stated. The letter was signed by economists from across the political spectrum, including Douglas Holtz-Eakin, who served under President George H.W. Bush, and Austan Goolsbee, the former chairman of President Obama's Council of Economic Advisers. The group also included six Nobel laureates. “Immigration is not just a good thing,“ said Eakin, who is now president of the right leaning American Action Forum think tank. “It’s a necessity.” Last month, a survey of 285 economists at America's major corporations by the National Association of Business Economics (NABE) found that a clear majority believed President Trump's restrictive stance on immigration is a mistake. These economists favored more “relaxed immigration policies” that they said would help boost the economy and noted that fixing the H-1B visa program should be the priority over deporting illegal immigrants.

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Shocker: Donald Trump reverses course on China

It shouldn’t be surprising at all that a president who said Bashar al-Assad was Syria’s problem one day and then, literally a week later, bombed the country; or who previously said Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellenshould be ashamed of herself” and is now open to her serving another term, would reverse course on China without any explanation. But it’s still pretty amazing that Trump, who spent the bulk of his campaign and time in office, through the beginning of April, threatening to label China a currency manipulator, has all of a sudden decided that’s not the case anymore. Per The Wall Street Journal:

“I think our dollar is getting too strong, and partially that’s my fault because people have confidence in me. But that’s hurting—that will hurt ultimately,” Trump said in an interview. “Look, there’s some very good things about a strong dollar, but usually speaking the best thing about it is that it sounds good.” He continued, “It’s very, very hard to compete when you have a strong dollar and other countries are devaluing their currency.”

Mr. Trump said the reason he has changed his mind on one of his signature campaign promises is that China hasn’t been manipulating its currency for months and because taking the step now could jeopardize his talks with Beijing on confronting the threat of North Korea. “They’re not currency manipulators,” Mr. Trump said.

Just so we’re clear:

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Trump’s budget director says Trump obviously wasn’t serious about eliminating the national debt

In April 2016, while running for president of the United States, Donald Trump made one of his boldest claims yet: that he would eliminate the national debt over two terms in the White House. At the time Trump made that claim, the national debt was clocking in at around $19 trillion. Now, it’s over $20 trillion. The United States, by the way, hasn’t been debt-free since 1835. And Trump has big plans that cost lots of money, like increasing military spending, building a $21 billion fence, and pouring $1 trillion into infrastructure while simultaneously cutting taxes. Sure he plans to slash funding for the E.P.A. and other bleeding-heart initiatives like Meals on Wheels, the National Endowments for the Arts and Humanities, and after-school programs, but those cuts—while devastating to the people who rely on those programs—would barely move the needle on the country’s debt. So how, exactly, does Trump plan to make good on his promise? According to the president’s budget director, Mick Mulvaney, he doesn’t and never did in the first place. Here‘s Mulvaney offering a his take to CNBC’s John Harwood:

Harwood: And what about the goal of eliminating the debt, which President Trump at one point said he would do at the end of his second term?

Mulvaney: It’s fairly safe to assume that was hyperbole. I'm not going to be able to pay off $20 trillion worth of debt in four years. I'd be being dishonest with you if I said that I could. The reason the president doesn't want to change some of the mandatory spending is because the public's not ready for it yet. They're ready for economic growth.

Speaking of economic growth, Trump has promised yuge growth, of the 4 percent annually variety, which a lot of smart people who actually know about this stuff have said is about as likely as the president taking an age-appropriate wife. But perhaps that’s just another instance of him being hyperbolic and so we shouldn’t actually hold him accountable.

United Airlines says it won’t call the cops to drag ticked passengers off planes anymore

This new policy unfortunately came a bit too late for David Dao:

“We’re not going to put a law-enforcement official on to remove a booked, paid, seated passenger,” United C.E.O. Oscar Munoz said in an interview Wednesday with ABC. “We can’t do that.”

Elsewhere!

Fired Banker Sues Credit Suisse After Rogue-Trader Case Collapse (Bloomberg)

David Einhorn’s Greenlight Claims GM Misled Credit Raters on Stock (Bloomberg)

Trump’s travel ban is hitting luxury hotels the hardest (N.Y.P.)

Judges reject banker’s claim to be a genius in divorce case (The Guardian)

Fischer’s secret speech shows the Fed has learned nothing from its leak scandal (Business Insider)

Why Banks Could Regain Momentum (W.S.J.)

Bad times for active managers: Almost none have beaten the market over the past 15 years (CNBC)

Trump’s Trademark Continues Its March Across the Globe, Raising Eyebrows (N.Y.T.)

“Charging Bull” sculptor says New York's “Fearless Girl” statue violates his rights (The Guardian)