Don’t look now, but Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are essentially deadlocked in the polls. With just hours to go until what may be the most anticipated debate in election history, with 100 million people estimated to tune in, a wave of new surveys suggest what seemed impossible a month ago: Clinton, who had been leading by wide margins a few weeks ago, now has only a narrow lead over Trump. The estimable FiveThirtyEight, the data journalism site run by statistician Nate Silver, who correctly called all 50 states in the 2012 election, now says that the presidential election, if it were held today, would be a coin-flip.
The good news for Clinton is that her downward slide in the polls, which began earlier this month, seems to have leveled out. Quinnipiac reports that she leads Trump by only one point in a four-way race, 44-43. CNN/ORC found her and Trump in a deadlock in Pennsylvania (45-43) and Colorado, where Trump leads her 42-41. Monmouth gives Clinton slightly better odds, showing her with a four-point lead over Trump in a four-way race (46-42).
The majority of poll respondents told Monmouth that they do not expect the debates will change their minds. But there remain people who can be swayed, and, as Vanity Fair’s T.A. Frank notes, plenty of voters are looking for a reason to say yes to Trump. The fact that many haven’t already rejected him outright, after months of otherwise unforgivable provocations, suggests a deep and abiding hostility toward his opponent. Indeed, on Monday Bloomberg released a poll showing Trump leading Clinton nationally by two points. If the bilious billionaire can manage to appear level-headed and presidential enough for 90 minutes, he may just win the election.
Having set the bar so low he could crawl over it, there is only upside for Trump in tonight’s debate. But that’s not to say that Clinton, who has spent weeks preparing for her face-off with Trump, can’t regain her momentum with a strong performance. Trump is reportedly relying on his natural confidence and showmanship (bluster, in other words) to win the night. But his lack of practice could pose a problem when he’s forced to answer policy questions—no matter how much he evades them—for 90 minutes, for 120 seconds at a time. When deprived of a script or teleprompter, Trump tends to make rambling, if not patently offensive, statements. Trump insiders worry publicly that he doesn’t have the attention span to last without losing focus—a clever bit of expectations-setting that is nonetheless a very real concern for the G.O.P. nominee. (Trump previously threatened to boycott further primary debates if their length was not shortened from three hours and reportedly never assigned anyone to stand in for Clinton during debate practice, little though there was.)
Clinton’s task is arguably tougher. The Democratic nominee is the second least-liked major-party nominee in recent memory, behind only her opponent, and is perceived as even less trustworthy than Trump, who is currently being sued for allegedly defrauding thousands of economically vulnerable students. (The Trump campaign has portrayed the lawsuit against Trump University as the effort of a tiny minority of former students.) Her trustworthiness problem was compounded in recent weeks by her unnecessarily furtive attempt to hide a bout with pneumonia, which caused her to apparently collapse following a 9/11 memorial ceremony earlier this month. Now, Clinton will have to pull off the remarkable feat of appearing strong but sympathetic, and competent without being condescending.
With the race as tight as it is, Monday promises to be the fulcrum upon which the election could hinge. With Clinton largely a known quantity, more undecided voters will be looking at Trump, the epitome of the known unknown, to see if he will give them a reason to roll the dice. It’s Clinton's debate to lose.
