Last week we learned that one of the world’s most successful hedge fund managers, Steve Cohen, turned in his second-worst performance ever for 2016, which may or may not have had something to do with losing a couple former employees to a $1.8 billion settlement and guilty-of-securities-fraud pleas for several of his employees. (Cohen himself was never charged.) Today, incidentally, his chief market intelligence officer had this to say at the London School of Economics’ alternative investment conference:

No matter how you "slice-and-dice the data,” hedge funds are struggling to meet their promise to clients to consistently produce high returns with low correlation to markets, Matthew Granade said.

“It’s kind of: ‘I promise you a Rolls Royce and I give you a Honda’,” he said. Investors “ultimately come back for a refund, and we are seeing a lot more of that in our industry," he said.

Point72, the $12 billion family office Cohen is limited to managing until 2018 (per an agreement with U.S. derivatives regulators that temporarily banned him from managing outside money), returned only about 1 percent last year, Bloomberg reported. Hedge funds on average returned 4.5 percent in 2016, while the S&P rose about 13 percent.

Central banks think Trump should cool it with the threats

The International Monetary Fund expects good and less good things from Donald Trump. Per the Wall Street Journal:

The I.M.F. on Monday bumped up its economic growth forecasts for the U.S., saying output could grow nearly a half-percentage point faster than previously thought over this year and next, thanks to Mr. Trump’s plans to cut taxes and boost infrastructure spending. That puts the U.S. economy set to expand 2.3% this year and 2.5% next year.

[The I.M.F and the World Bank both] warned Mr. Trump’s trade plans could undermine global growth if he moves ahead with vowed tariffs and other punitive actions against longtime trade partners, especially China and Mexico.

Ben Bernanke thinks Trump should get in touch with reality

Recently, outgoing Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew suggested that Donald Trump’s discourse on China—i.e. unhinged Twitter rants—was not “intellectually sound.” Now, former Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke has commented that when the president-elect talks about the People’s Republic, he doesn’t entirely sound like someone who is living on the same planet at the rest of us.

Former Fed chief Ben Bernanke said on Monday that President-elect Donald Trump calling China a currency manipulator doesn’t “fit with reality,” and warned about the dangers of a trade war.

“One of the things the candidate said he would do was label China a currency manipulator, which means that China is keeping its currency artificially low in order get an advantage in exports,” said Bernanke, who headed up the U.S. Federal Reserve from 2006-2014. “Of course, China right now is working very hard to keep the renminbi from falling. So it's a little bit inconsistent.”

Deutsche Bank’s no good, very bad bonus season

Gird your loins! It’s going to be a dark day in hell before the bank’s staff see anything resembling bonus monetary compensation, at least according to one report:

”We have it on good authority that Cryan is about to come out of the deep freeze and announce to Deutsche Bankers that…there will be no cash bonuses this year. Moreover, there will be no new Deutsche stock bonuses that will vest in the next 12 months. 2016 Deutsche Bank bonuses, paid in 2017, will be non-existent.”

Fink hopes Germans won’t vote for crazy

BlackRock C.E.O. Larry Fink prays the people of Germany won’t pull an America and vote for insanity this fall. Per Bloomberg:

One of Wall Street’s most influential figures, BlackRock Inc.’s Larry Fink, signaled his support for Angela Merkel as Germany’s chancellor prepares to campaign for re-election this fall, saying she has provided “moral leadership” to the world.

“I sincerely hope that Germany chooses to continue its role as a leader and stabilizing force in the world,” Fink, the chairman and chief executive officer of the world’s biggest asset manager, said in a speech Monday evening at a reception hosted by Deutsche Boerse AG in Frankfurt. “Germany has demonstrated its ability to balance acts of humanity and economic and political challenges.”

Elsewhere:

These eight billionaires have as much money as half the world combined (VF Hive)

“Pimco hoards cash to avoid risks after Trump rally” (F.T.)

Moody’s will pay $864 million over inflated ratings (AP)

Without “admitting any wrongdoing,” Rolls Royce will pay £671m to make a bribery investigation go away (Guardian)

“China will 'take off the gloves' if Trump continues on Taiwan, state media warns” (Reuters)

Professional gambler Billy Walters wants insider trading case thrown out (Bloomberg)

Finally: “Shakira urges Davos elite to nurture future leaders” (Reuters)