Even by Trumpian standards, the president’s past six weeks have been epically horrendous. The trade war with China is eating away at his central re-election rationale, while his preposterous feud with Alabama weather forecasters, and his inviting the Taliban to Camp David days before the 18th anniversary of 9/11, have renewed questions about his mental fitness and the 25th Amendment. An ABC News–Washington Post poll released last Wednesday showed Joe Biden beating Donald Trump by 15 points—a 5-point jump since July. The drumbeat of negative headlines is causing Trump to lash out. “He cares a lot about polls. I’ve never seen anyone who cares more, frankly,” said a former West Wing official. A prominent Republican close to the White House told me: “You can’t even share one little negative thing with him. If you give him a poll number that’s down, he’ll just go nuts. No one wants to share any bad news.”
In this darkening political environment, Trump and his advisers are debating various Hail Mary strategies that might reset the campaign. One idea being pushed by Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump, which was first reported by Axios, would be to dump Vice President Mike Pence from the ticket and replace him with former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley. “They threaten Mike every week that they’re going to take him off the ticket,” a Republican in touch with Pence’s camp told me. “They tell him, ‘You have to go here and say this, you have to go there and do that.’” (The White House, Pence, and Kushner declined to comment.)
The possible Pence defenestration is being driven by several factors, sources said. One is that Trump’s upside-down poll numbers with women make it imperative that he do something big to improve his standing with female suburban voters. “The political thinking is that while Pence is popular with evangelicals, they won’t have anywhere to go,” the former West Wing official said. It would also give Trump a card to play during the Democrats’ convention next July. “When the Democrats have their big night nominating their candidate, it’s a perfect time for Trump to announce a new running mate,” the former West Wing official said.
But another consideration is Trump’s frustration with Pence. Despite Pence’s obsequiousness, the relationship between the two has never cemented. “Trump sees him as a good Christian man, but in Trump’s mind he thinks that means Mike’s weak,” the Republican close to the White House said. Trump has complained to people that Pence isn’t loyal enough. (For instance, Pence recently refused a request by Kushner to attack former White House communications director turned Trump critic Anthony Scaramucci during a speech at a GOP event at the Naval Observatory, according to a person briefed on the conversation.) “Trump is annoyed Pence hasn’t been defending him more,” a Republican close to the White House said.
Perhaps the most audacious element of Trump’s strategy reset is his plan to win back black and Hispanic voters. “There’s this myth in Trumpworld that they’ll win 20% of the black vote,” said the Republican close to the White House. “They think with the economy and criminal justice reform, they’ll make it up with black voters in Rust Belt states. Trump tells people, ‘Black people love me.’” On a call with reporters last week, campaign manager Brad Parscale said Trump is improving his poll numbers with Latinos and intends to try to flip New Mexico red in 2020. In 2018, Democrats picked up two congressional seats and defended a third in New Mexico. “Trump thinks he has magical powers,” the Republican said.
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