A few minutes ago, I happened to review the U.S. budget and observed that we could go from deficits to surplus by simply eliminating all social safety-net programs, including Medicaid. I plan on printing these papers out, naming the plan something august like Rise to Opportunity, and sending it to David Brooks with the hope that he’ll subsequently call it the “most courageous budget reform proposal any of us have seen in our lifetimes.” But if he doesn’t, I guess Paul Ryan will remain Washington’s favorite man of ideas.

Because Ryan is so beloved by many inside the Beltway, some are suggesting that he parachute into a contested Republican convention—one in which Donald Trump fails to win the 1,237 delegates required on the first vote—and become the party’s nominee. “If we don’t have a nominee who can win on the first ballot, I’m for none of the above,” said Ryan’s predecessor, former House Speaker John Boehner, a couple of weeks ago. “I’m for Paul Ryan to be our nominee.” Sure, Americans seem to be flirting with populism, but maybe what they really want deep down is upper-income tax cuts, Social Security private accounts, and more immigration? Add to that Ryan’s patented smile-frown of humble empathy, and he handily beats Hillary Clinton. It all makes sense.

There are signs that Ryan is open to being drafted. He didn’t mind the idea of being vice president back in 2012, so maybe he wouldn’t mind the idea of being president today. He has shaved his beard, quieting suspicions of a secret fealty to Islam. He represents the opposite of Trump on many policy fronts, like trade, immigration, and foreign policy. Yes, he has denied interest in the nomination. “While I am grateful for the encouragement I’ve received, I will not be a candidate,” he has averred. But...oh, sorry, that quote is from last October. It’s what Ryan said about becoming Speaker of the House about three weeks before becoming Speaker of the House. More recently, he hasn’t ruled it out—first telling CNBC, “We’ll see, who knows?” and then trying to backpedal by telling people to “knock it off,” perhaps while batting at the air coyly. Ryan is also doing plenty behind the scenes, including taking a trip to Utah a few days before Mitt Romney gave a speech there denouncing Donald Trump.

But I cannot see how the dreams of John Boehner are likely to come true. A pro-Ryan conspiracy would require a level of Republican competence at odds with all the evidence. Also, Ryan would be crazy to say yes.

Consider, first of all, what it would take to make a Ryan nomination logistically happen. Ryan’s allies would have to begin quietly courting Republican delegates all over the country, simultaneously planting the idea in their heads and promising them wonderful things for going along with the plan—all while keeping anyone from divulging the secret, lest Ryan be called out as an obvious liar.

Then, at the convention, both the first and second ballots would have to flame out. If Trump failed to get a majority on the first ballot, that would free up only about 57 percent of the delegates, meaning 43 percent would still be committed to a candidate. The second round of voting would therefore still favor Trump or Cruz, both of whom would have also promised supporters wonderful things, and maybe, in Trump’s case, even cash, which, according to *Bloomberg'*s Sasha Issenberg, is not illegal.

Things would therefore have to go to a third round, and any defection to Ryan would have to contend with howls of protest not just from Trump, Cruz, and John Kasich, but also from a huge chorus within the Republican establishment, including Senator Lindsey Graham, who has denounced those who “want to drop in their favorite candidate and then try to stifle the will of the people.” In sum, securing a Ryan nomination would be a costly challenge for even a cunning and brilliant establishment, let alone a bumbling and dimwitted one.

But let’s put aside the feasibility of it and assume that Ryan could secure the nomination. Why would he realistically want it? Being Speaker of the House is a pretty fancy gig, one of the nation’s most powerful, and Ryan just landed it. Unlike other political jobs, though, the House Speakership is incompatible with running for president. Your duty as House Speaker, after all, is to keep your team unified amid disagreements and act as a neutral party when necessary. (You even have to chair the convention.) Step down from that elevated role to become a direct combatant in the Republican civil war, and you can never go back. Not only would Ryan have to accept losing his day job; he’d also have to accept being seen as a usurper. Running for president is tough enough without half your party being alienated. Defeat in November would be almost guaranteed. In short, I predict Ryan will sit this one out.

Now, don’t relax completely, foes of Paul Ryan. The man is still eager to run for the presidency. Just last week, he gave a speech proclaiming the “mission of my Speakership to raise our gaze and aim for a brighter horizon,” before continuing to pile on the vacuity—“we can appeal to your aspirations,” “[politics] can be about solutions”—for another 20 minutes. If he’s egotistical enough, he’ll even go for it this year. But I doubt it.

For now, Trump and Cruz remain the most likely nominees. And, as Trump manages to frighten away more and more supporters (by insulting Ted Cruz’s wife, for instance), Cruz (a diligent wooer of delegates behind the scenes, himself) keeps improving his odds of winning on the second ballot. It’s not the outcome wished for by John Boehner—or by Paul Ryan. But sometimes voters have their own desires, even if it means disappointing Washington’s foremost intellectual.